PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Jessica Pegula will meet Aryna Sabalenka in the US Open women’s final Saturday

NEW YORK (AP) — Back in January,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center when Aryna Sabalenka was winning a second consecutive Australian Open title, Jessica Pegula was bowing out in the second round with a straight-set loss against someone ranked 51st.

It wasn’t the first setback for Pegula, of course. There have been many of those through the years, from assorted injuries to difficult-to-digest defeats. Look at her now, though: On Saturday, the No. 6-seeded Pegula will face No. 2 Sabalenka for the championship at the U.S. Open.

“If you would have told me at the beginning of the year I’d be in the finals of the U.S. Open, I would have laughed so hard, because that just was where my head was — not thinking that I would be here,” Pegula, a 30-year-old American, said Thursday night after coming back to earn her first shot at a Grand Slam trophy with a 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 victory over Karolina Muchova in the semifinals at Flushing Meadows.

“So to be able to overcome all those challenges, and say that I get a chance at the title Saturday, is what we play for as players — let alone being able to do that in my home country here, in my home Slam,” Pegula said. “It’s perfect, really.”

RELATED COVERAGE US Open: Jessica Pegula reaches her first Grand Slam final at age 30 and will play Aryna Sabalenka Errani and Vavassori win US Open mixed doubles title in Young’s final match before retiring Jannik Sinner plays Jack Draper in the US Open semifinals weeks after a doping exoneration

Pegula’s first Grand Slam final comes at age 30

It hasn’t exactly always been a smooth ride for Pegula, the oldest U.S. woman in the Open era, which began in 1968, to reach her first major singles final.

There was, for example, a 2013 knee problem that required surgery. And a hip operation that sidelined Pegula for more than half of 2017, leaving her ranking outside the top 850 and forcing her to work her way back up via lower-tour events. This season, a rib injury kept her out of action for two months, sidelining her for the French Open.

On the court, there was a seven-match Grand Slam losing streak that ended in New York in 2020. And an 0-6 record in major quarterfinals until this week, when she outplayed No. 1 Iga Swiatek, a five-time Slam champion, at that stage.

Pegula figured she would get this far eventually

Surely, at some point along the journey, Pegula lost hope of ever fulfilling her childhood goal of winning one of her sport’s four most prestigious tournaments, right?

No, not really.

Yes, she acknowledged, there were “those type of low moments,” as she put it, where there was some doubt whether she “wanted to do it anymore.”

“But, I think, in the end, I always would kind of snap back and be, like, ‘OK, what am I talking about?’ I would always kind of flip the script a little bit, and I have always been good at doing that. That’s why I’ve always been able to come back from different challenges even better than before,” explained Pegula, who was born in New York and whose parents own the NFL’s Buffalo Bills and NHL’s Buffalo Sabres.

“Honestly, I’ve always felt, like, not that it was never going to happen — I almost think the opposite,” she continued. “I always felt like: ‘You know what? You’ll figure it out eventually.’”

“Eventually” sure seems to be right now.

Pegula’s only loss over the past month came against Sabalenka

Since moving to hard courts after the Paris Olympics on clay, Pegula has gone 15-1, with a title at Toronto and a runner-up finish at the Cincinnati Open before the success over the past two weeks.

The lone loss in that stretch came against — yes, you guessed it — Sabalenka, the dominant player on the surface over the last two seasons. Saturday’s match will be Sabalenka’s fourth final in a row at a hard-court major, including the last two championships at Melbourne Park and a loss to Coco Gauff for the title at Flushing Meadows 12 months ago.

The American crowd did its best to boost Gauff that day, rattling Sabalenka, a 26-year-old from Belarus who is 45-11 in 2024.

“Tough losses never — how to say? — make me feel depressed, like, not thinking of not coming back to the tournament. It only motivates me to come back and to try one more time, try harder and, maybe, work harder on some things which maybe didn’t work in the past,” Sabalenka said after eliminating Emma Navarro of the U.S. in straight sets in the semifinals. “I’m still hoping to hold that beautiful trophy.”

___

Howard Fendrich has been the AP’s tennis writer since 2002. Find his stories here: https://apnews.com/author/howard-fendrich

___

AP tennis: https://apnews.com/hub/tennis